01
Oil prices
West Texas Intermediate moved from $67 per barrel before the conflict, above $100, and back near $70 after the June 17 memorandum of understanding.
Weekly talking points
Oil, inflation, and rates.
Weekend Talking Points — 'Oil, Inflation and Rates' by Scott Bradley Brixen, June 26, 2026.
Market context
The signals behind the conversation.
With the U.S./Iran peace process underway, oil prices had fallen back to pre-war levels while mortgage rates remained high amid concerns about the Fed's hawkish tilt. The source article notes that inflation may have peaked and mortgage rates should follow inflation lower.
02
Mortgage rates
Treasury yields and mortgage rates had only started to follow oil prices lower, with the bond market reacting to the Fed's stance.
03
Inflation
May headline PCE rose 0.4% month over month, lifting year-over-year headline PCE from 3.8% to 4.1%; core PCE rose 0.3% month over month.
04
New home sales
May new home sales fell 13% month over month to an annualized pace of 580,000, with affordability identified as the key issue.
Bond and mortgage market
Watch the path from inflation to rates.
The source article argues that easing energy prices could pull headline inflation lower and, as the market and Fed see inflation easing, expectations for rate hikes could fade.