Signs the Labor Market Is Losing Steam

The labor market is showing signs of slowing, while home price forecasts nationwide remain strong. Here are the key takeaways.

·      February Jobs Report Falls Well Short of Expectations

·      ADP Data Beats Forecasts but Reveals Soft Spots

·      Other Labor Market Indicators Point to Cooling

·      Home Price Forecast Shows Opportunities for Buyers

February Jobs Report Falls Well Short of Expectations

February job growth came in well below estimates according to the latest report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The economy lost 92,000 jobs, compared with forecasts calling for a gain of about 60,000. The unemployment rate ticked up from 4.3% to 4.4%.

What’s the bottom line? The latest report points to a cooling labor market. In addition to February’s losses, earlier payroll estimates for December and January were revised lower by a combined 69,000 jobs. Average job growth over the past year now stands at just 13,000 per month, and only 6,000 per month over the last three months.

Meanwhile, the average duration of unemployment rose to 25.7 weeks, the highest level in four years, suggesting it’s taking longer for job seekers to find new work.

ADP Data Beats Forecasts but Reveals Soft Spots

While the government’s jobs report showed losses, separate data from ADP noted that private employers added 63,000 jobs in February, topping expectations of 50,000. Small businesses drove nearly all the gains (+60,000), while medium-sized firms cut 7,000 jobs and large companies added 10,000.

What’s the bottom line? Even though ADP beat forecasts, hiring was uneven with the gains concentrated in a handful of sectors. At the same time, switching jobs no longer delivers the big pay bump it once did. Job switchers are still seeing higher annual pay growth (6.3%) than those who stay put (4.5%), but the gap has narrowed to 1.8% – the smallest on record. That suggests the labor market is becoming less competitive.

Other Labor Market Indicators Point to Cooling

Several additional indicators point to a labor market that is losing momentum.

Revelio Labs reported 16,700 job losses in February in its non-farm payroll release. The firm gained attention last fall when its data helped fill the gap during the government shutdown.

Unemployment claims remain relatively low, with 213,000 new claims filed. However, this figure may not fully capture layoffs in today’s economy. Many displaced workers are turning to gig or freelance work instead of filing for unemployment benefits, often because those benefits don’t fully cover essential costs like housing, utilities, and insurance.

Continuing unemployment claims rose by 46,000 to 1.868 million. This measure tracks people who remain on unemployment benefits and suggests that job seekers are taking longer to find new positions.

Layoff and hiring announcements tell a similar story. Challenger, Gray & Christmas reported nearly 50,000 job cuts in February, following just over 108,000 in January. Combined layoffs in January and February rank among the highest for those two months since 2009.

Meanwhile, hiring plans remain subdued. Companies announced just 18,061 planned hires through the first two months of the year, a 56% drop compared with the same period last year.

What’s the bottom line? Higher continuing unemployment claims, elevated layoff announcements, and weak hiring plans all reinforce the view that the labor market is gradually cooling.

Home Price Forecast Shows Opportunities for Buyers

Home prices slipped just 0.1% in January, according to Cotality’s latest Home Price Insights report. Despite the small monthly dip, values are still up 0.7% compared to a year ago, only slightly below December’s 0.9% annual pace.

What’s the bottom line? The longer-term trend is encouraging. Cotality expects home prices to rise 4.4% over the next year, pointing to potential relief in mortgage rates and ongoing buyer demand.

And over time, real estate continues to build wealth. For example, a $500,000 home appreciating at 4% would gain about $20,000 in value in just one year, showing how even moderate appreciation can add up.