Jobs Report Delivers an Upside Surprise

October hiring came in much stronger than expected, with other labor market reports offering additional insight into the broader picture. Here’s what you need to know.

·       October Jobs Report Shows Surprising Strength

·       Private Sector Hiring Tops Expectations

·       Additional Labor Market Highlights‍

October Jobs Report Shows Surprising Strength

October hiring was well above expectations, with the economy adding 165,000 jobs compared to forecasts of around 60,000. Job growth for August and September was also revised higher by a combined 84,000 jobs. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate edged down from 4.2% to 4.1%.

Bottom line: This was a strong report in several areas, with some encouraging details beneath the headline numbers. Full-time employment increased by 714,000, while part-time employment declined by 242,000. Plus, the growth in the labor force helped the unemployment rate fall to 4.1% for the right reasons – not due to an exodus from the labor force.

There is, however, an important caveat. Monthly jobs numbers from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) can be volatile and are often revised as more data becomes available. This report also came in stronger than several other measures of the labor market, including the latest estimates from ADP and Revelio Labs.

Private Sector Hiring Tops Expectations

Private employers added 86,000 jobs in October, matching September’s revised gain and beating expectations of about 69,000, according to ADP. Job growth was spread across businesses of all sizes. Workers who changed jobs saw their pay rise an average of 7.6% over the past year, the largest increase since March 2024. By comparison, workers who stayed with their current employer received average raises of 4.4%.

Note that ADP's report measures private-sector job growth, which came in notably below the 159,000 private-sector job gains reported by the BLS.

Bottom line: Hiring showed “solid growth” for a second consecutive month, according to ADP, following much weaker gains in July and August. However, job growth remains uneven across industries. Professional and business services lost jobs for the third straight month, potentially reflecting the growing impact of AI. Meanwhile, education and health services continued to drive much of the job growth, reflecting sustained demand for workers as the population ages.

Additional Labor Market Highlights

Revelio Labs reported just 26,000 job gains in October, with health care and social assistance among the key drivers, consistent with the trends reported by ADP. 

Job openings totaled 7.52 million in September, well above expectations of 7.1 million. However, the headline figure may somewhat overstate the number of unique opportunities available to workers because some remote jobs are posted in multiple locations.

New unemployment claims edged down to 189,000, tying a 57-year low. Continuing claims stood at 1.72 million, which is down from highs seen earlier this year. However, some of that decline may reflect unemployment benefits expiring rather than workers finding new jobs.

Seasonal hiring announcements rebounded in October after a slow start in September. Challenger, Gray & Christmas reported 470,400 seasonal hiring announcements through October, up 26% from the same period in 2025. Challenger added that “seasonal employers are staggering their announcements and waiting longer to see how the season shakes out before they commit to numbers.”