Soft Labor Data Boosts Rate Cut Odds

Jobs week revealed more signs of a cooling labor market, strengthening the case for a Fed rate cut at its upcoming meeting on September 17. Here are the key takeaways.

·       August Job Growth Disappoints, June Turns Negative

·       Private Sector Hiring Slows in August

·       July Job Openings Drop to 10-Month Low

·       Jobless Claims Stay Stubbornly High

August Job Growth Disappoints, June Turns Negative

August job growth fell short of expectations, with just 22,000 jobs added versus the 75,000 forecast. Revisions to June and July showed a combined downward adjustment of 21,000 jobs, including a loss of 13,000 in June – the first monthly job decline since December 2020. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate ticked up slightly from 4.2% to 4.3%.

What’s the bottom line? This weaker-than-expected report – along with other soft labor data covered below – has boosted the Mortgage Bond market, which is helping mortgage rates trend lower. It also increases the likelihood of a policy shift from the Federal Reserve, which carefully tracks inflation and employment when deciding on interest rates.

Typically, the Fed raises rates to curb inflation and lowers them to support a slowing economy. Fed Chair Jerome Powell recently stated that a rate cut is getting closer, depending on incoming data. Based on what we've seen so far, the chances of a rate cut at the Fed’s next meeting on September 17 are looking very strong.

Quick refresher: When the Fed adjusts rates, they’re changing the Fed Funds Rate, which is a short-term rate used for bank-to-bank lending. While it doesn’t directly set mortgage rates, it does influence them and other borrowing costs across the economy.

Private Sector Hiring Slows in August

After a strong rebound in July, private sector job growth cooled in August, with just 54,000 jobs added, according to ADP. That’s well below the 75,000 expected and nearly half of July’s 106,000 gain.

Mid-sized businesses (50-499 employees) led hiring with 25,000 new jobs, while small businesses added 12,000. Large companies, which had previously driven growth, slowed considerably with just 18,000 new positions.

Workers who stayed in their jobs saw annual pay increases of 4.4%, while those who switched roles continued to see stronger growth at 7.1%.

What’s the bottom line? Job growth is clearly losing steam. Over the past three months, the average has fallen to just 46,000 new jobs per month – down from 62,000 over the last six months and well below the 120,000 monthly average from the past year.

ADP Chief Economist Dr. Nela Richardson explained, “The year started with strong job growth, but that momentum has been whipsawed by uncertainty. A variety of things could explain the hiring slowdown, including labor shortages, skittish consumers, and AI disruptions.”

July Job Openings Drop to 10-Month Low

Job openings fell more than expected in July, dropping to 7.18 million – well below the forecast of 7.4 million. This marks the lowest level since last September. June’s numbers were also revised down by 80,000 to 7.36 million. The biggest declines came from the health care, retail and hospitality sectors.

On top of that, both the hiring rate (3.3%) and the quit rate (2%) are still hovering near decade lows (outside of the pandemic), pointing to a softer job market and lower worker confidence.

What’s the bottom line? Job openings have been trending down and are now far below the peak of over 12 million in 2022. And since many remote job listings are posted in multiple states, the real number of unique opportunities could be overstated. Another sign of a cooling labor market: the ratio of job openings to unemployed workers has dropped from over 2:1 in 2022 to just below 1:1 today.

Jobless Claims Stay Stubbornly High

Initial jobless claims rose by 8,000 to 237,000, matching a two-month high and coming in above expectations. Meanwhile, continuing claims, which track those still receiving unemployment benefits after the first week, dipped slightly by 4,000 to 1.94 million.

What’s the bottom line? Continuing claims have stayed above 1.9 million for 15 weeks in a row. This signals that many job seekers are struggling to find new employment, likely due to fewer available opportunities in today’s job market.

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