MBS Highway Housing Index, September 2024
The MBS Highway National Housing Index dropped 2 points in September 2024 to 40. With the seasonal slowdown well underway, the decline in mortgage rates over the last four months has yet to noticeably boost buyer activity.
National Data
The MBS Highway National Housing Index dropped 2 points to 40 in September 2024. This was the fifth straight MoM decrease for the overall index. In September 2023, the index stood at 41.
The national Buyer Activity sub-index fell 4 points to 36 in September 2024, more than reversing the 3 point gain experienced in August 2024. This despite average mortgage rates dropping 118 basis points (1.18%) over the last 4 months. Exacerbating the normal seasonal slowdown, buyers seem to be in wait-and-see mode, with both Fed rate cuts and the US presidential election forthcoming.
The national Price Direction sub-index, meanwhile, fell 1 point to 44 in September 2024. In September 2023, the national Price Direction sub-index was at 48.
The national Buyer Activity sub-index fell 4 points to 36 in September 2024, more than reversing the 3 point gain experienced in August 2024. This despite average mortgage rates dropping 118 basis points (1.18%) over the last 4 months. Exacerbating the normal seasonal slowdown, buyers seem to be in wait-and-see mode, with both Fed rate cuts and the US presidential election forthcoming.
The national Price Direction sub-index, meanwhile, fell 1 point to 44 in September 2024. In September 2023, the national Price Direction sub-index was at 48.
Regional Data
Buyer Activity levels fell month-over-month in six of the seven regions, with only the Southwest (34 → 35) eking out a small increase from a low level. With the Mid-Atlantic slipping (50 → 44), the Northeast (58 → 56) was the only region where Buyer Activity levels remained above the 50 breakeven point between expansion and contraction.
Four of the seven regions saw their Price Direction sub-indexes move lower, most notably the Southeast (39 → 32) and Midwest (49 → 44). The largest gain was seen in the Northeast (63 → 72), but the Southwest (35 → 39) and West (48 → 49) regions also saw increases.
“Average 30-year mortgage rates peaked in October 2023 at over 8%. Today, they’re approaching 6.25%. Affordability has already improved, and with the Fed set to begin cutting interest rates on September 18, more good news could be on the horizon for homebuyers. Just don’t wait too long to make your move. With home prices continuing to rise, the ‘cost of waiting’ is both real and significant,” said Barry Habib, MBS Highway’s Founder and CEO.
Buyer Activity levels fell month-over-month in six of the seven regions, with only the Southwest (34 → 35) eking out a small increase from a low level. With the Mid-Atlantic slipping (50 → 44), the Northeast (58 → 56) was the only region where Buyer Activity levels remained above the 50 breakeven point between expansion and contraction.
Four of the seven regions saw their Price Direction sub-indexes move lower, most notably the Southeast (39 → 32) and Midwest (49 → 44). The largest gain was seen in the Northeast (63 → 72), but the Southwest (35 → 39) and West (48 → 49) regions also saw increases.
“Average 30-year mortgage rates peaked in October 2023 at over 8%. Today, they’re approaching 6.25%. Affordability has already improved, and with the Fed set to begin cutting interest rates on September 18, more good news could be on the horizon for homebuyers. Just don’t wait too long to make your move. With home prices continuing to rise, the ‘cost of waiting’ is both real and significant,” said Barry Habib, MBS Highway’s Founder and CEO.
Methodology
MBS Highway’s monthly Housing Index provides an accurate and real-time read on buyer activity and home price direction both nationally and regionally in the U.S. housing market. This survey of 30,000 mortgage and real estate professionals fills a crucial industry need for insights that reflect buyers’ immediate experiences, helping mortgage loan originators to better serve homebuyers.
The MBS Highway Housing Survey is comprised of two separate component indices: buyer activity and home price direction. Each month, respondents rank buyer activity as “active,” “steady,” or “slower,” and home price direction as “price increases,” “steady,” or “price reductions.” A national and regional index is calculated for each component index by applying the formula “[active + (steady/2)]” for buyer activity, and “[price increases + (steady/2)]” for home price direction. The score for each component index is then used to calculate the MBS Highway Housing Index by applying the formula "[(national buyer activity/2) + (national home price direction/2)].
Any number over 50 indicates expansion while a number below 50 indicates contraction. The MBS Highway Housing Index can range between 0 and 100.
Dan Habib, MBS Highway’s Chief Revenue Officer, explained, “There are a few reliable housing reports available in the market, most of which are delayed by two months. Because MBS Highway has a large base of mortgage and real estate clients, we felt we were in a unique position to capture real-time housing data from our subscribers, who are on the front lines of the housing market.”
MBS Highway’s monthly Housing Index provides an accurate and real-time read on buyer activity and home price direction both nationally and regionally in the U.S. housing market. This survey of 30,000 mortgage and real estate professionals fills a crucial industry need for insights that reflect buyers’ immediate experiences, helping mortgage loan originators to better serve homebuyers.
The MBS Highway Housing Survey is comprised of two separate component indices: buyer activity and home price direction. Each month, respondents rank buyer activity as “active,” “steady,” or “slower,” and home price direction as “price increases,” “steady,” or “price reductions.” A national and regional index is calculated for each component index by applying the formula “[active + (steady/2)]” for buyer activity, and “[price increases + (steady/2)]” for home price direction. The score for each component index is then used to calculate the MBS Highway Housing Index by applying the formula "[(national buyer activity/2) + (national home price direction/2)].
Any number over 50 indicates expansion while a number below 50 indicates contraction. The MBS Highway Housing Index can range between 0 and 100.
Dan Habib, MBS Highway’s Chief Revenue Officer, explained, “There are a few reliable housing reports available in the market, most of which are delayed by two months. Because MBS Highway has a large base of mortgage and real estate clients, we felt we were in a unique position to capture real-time housing data from our subscribers, who are on the front lines of the housing market.”