Watch yesterday's trigger lead webinar with Jonathon Haddad and Tim Braheem HERE.
Stocks and Mortgage Bonds are both higher so far this morning.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent spoke yesterday and said that the Fed should be considering a 50bp cut at the September meeting. It’s unclear if other Fed members, like Waller and Bowman who wanted to cut at the last meeting, may also be in favor as a “catch up.”
The Fed Futures is only pricing in a three percent chance of a 50bp cut, but a 25bp cut appears to be a lock.
New Fed Chair Candidates
The Administration announced that their search for the next Fed Chair has expanded to 11 candidates, who will be interviewed by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent.
The new names include:
Here is the complete list, with the the Polmyarket Odds for the next Fed Chair:
Mortgage Applications
Rates moved lower last week, falling to 6.625%, capturing the move lower in rates after the weak Jobs Report.
As a result, Refinance rose 23%, but Purchases only rose 1%. A lot of people in media that don’t have an understanding of it are saying lower rates don’t move the needle. They would, but Refi’s and Purchases are different…someone calls you for a refinance to move forward and it’s a yes or no decision. Purchases, however, take longer – Once a customer learns rates are lower they then begin the shopping process, and rates have to remain lower throughout. It’s a delay, but they will help.
Technical Analysis
Mortgage Bonds have bounced higher from support at 101.76, with almost 20bp or room to the upside before reaching resistance at 102.09. Momentum has also swung back in our favor, potentially leading to follow through.
The 10-year held at resistance at 4.29% and is now moving lower. There is about 5bp of room before yields get to the next floor at 4.207%, which we think they will test.
Get notifications when agents you follow schedule open houses, complete a transaction with another loan originator, post a new listing, or share content on social media.Start your trial now so you never miss an opportunity to connect with new or existing referral partners.
Create 60 second videos for clients with Social Studio, and take advantage of social share assets that help you start conversations and highlight the benefits of buying.
Show clients how they can take advantage of a cash-out refinance or restructure their debt to save them years of mortgage payments, or demonstrate how debt consolidation can bridge the gap in payment differential on a more expensive home. With personal debt balances at an all-time high, use Debt Consolidation to help your clients achieve their financial goals and gain a better position to build wealth for their family.
Demonstrate how delaying a purchase for even a year or two could cost buyers thousands in appreciation, amortization, equity and more. Increase deal flow by showing clients how delaying their purchase could have more of an impact on their long-term wealth than they realize.
