Oil prices are lower, Stocks are higher, but Mortgage Bonds are slightly lower, trading beneath their 200-day Moving Average. The 10-year is higher and breaking above resistance, which is another negative sign.
Helping oil prices were reports that the Iranian Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi is expected to arrive in Pakistan tonight for a second round of peace talks with the US.
Meanwhile, Israel and Lebanon agreed to extend their truce by three more weeks after a meeting at the White House yesterday.
NAR Generational Trends
Yesterday we covered some insights from the NAR’s Generational Trends report. We wanted to follow up today with a few more insights.
Among younger buyers (ages 18 to 26), single women made up the largest share. They were the second largest group of buyers across all age groups, behind married couples, by a large margin. You may want to contemplate this in some of your marketing efforts.
The survey also showed that 65% think that Stocks are a better investment than homeownership. We think that both are great investments and support a diversified portfolio. But most don’t contemplate leverage when buying a home.
If someone were to invest $40,000 into a Stock, and they get a 10% return, they would have made $4,000. Conversely, if they were to invest in a home and the forecasted appreciation was 3%, they think it’s a much better investment to purchase the Stock.
But leverage plays a big role. If that same investor put $40,000 or 10% down on a $400,000 home, and they earned 3% in appreciation, they would gain $12,000. The return on their down payment investment would be 30%.
You cannot live in a Stock, you live in a home. Of course, there is a monthly cost of owning the home due to the mortgage. But it's in place of renting, where you would be paying a similar amount of money on a monthly basis, especially when contemplating principal is not a cost, rents going up, etc.
Additionally, the survey found that 1/5 of homeowners either don't understand or don't think buying a home is a good investment. Make sure you utilize our Appreciation and Buy vs Rent tools to educate your buyers as to the opportunity in homeownership. It can be life changing, especially over time.
News Next Week
Tuesday: ADP Weekly Employment Data, Case-Shiller & FHFA Appreciation Reports
Wednesday: Mortgage Apps, Housing Starts, Durable Goods Orders, Fed Meeting
Thursday: Personal Consumption Expenditures, Q1 2026 GDP First Reading, Employment Cost Index, Jobless Claims
Technical Analysis
Mortgage Bonds closed beneath their 200-day Moving Average yesterday and were pushed lower from it again today. This is a tough ceiling, with further room to the downside before reaching support.
The 10-year broke above resistance at 4.33% this morning, which is another cautionary sign, as there is a lot of room for yields to move higher until reaching 4.41%.
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Show clients how they can take advantage of a cash-out refinance or restructure their debt to save them years of mortgage payments, or demonstrate how debt consolidation can bridge the gap in payment differential on a more expensive home. With personal debt balances at an all-time high, use Debt Consolidation to help your clients achieve their financial goals and gain a better position to build wealth for their family.
Demonstrate how delaying a purchase for even a year or two could cost buyers thousands in appreciation, amortization, equity and more. Increase deal flow by showing clients how delaying their purchase could have more of an impact on their long-term wealth than they realize.
