The MBS Highway National Housing Index dropped 1 point in May 2024, as an over 50 basis point jump in mortgage rates during April negated the normal seasonal upswing in activity. Home prices, however, remained in expansion territory (above 50) in all regions.

The MBS Highway National Housing Index rose 3 points in April 2024, resuming its upward trajectory after a brief pause in March.

The strong, upward trajectory the MBS Highway National Housing Index experienced over the prior three months paused in March 2024, as mortgage rates reversed course and moved back above 7%. There was significant regional variation, however.

February 2024 witnessed a massive increase in the MBS Highway National Housing Index, which rose 13 points to 55 (from 42 in January 2024). This was driven primarily by a 16 point jump in the Buyer Activity sub-index (from 33 → 49). While part of this increase is normal seasonality, there is little doubt that buyers have been reenergized by lower mortgage rates, slightly higher inventory, and the prospect of Fed rate cuts ahead.

The MBS Highway National Housing Index jumped to 42 in January 2024, from 34 in December 2023. This was the second straight month of improvement after six months of decline. While normal seasonality is playing a supporting role in the turnaround, the lead actor has been the sharp fall in mortgage rates in late-2023.

Buyer activity recovered somewhat in December, as the recent 1% fall in mortgage rates coaxed some buyers back from the sidelines. Home prices continued to hold up better than transaction volumes. But with lower rates, slightly improved inventory, and spring around the corner, activity levels may have already bottomed.

Buyer activity slowed further as 30-yr mortgage rates climbed briefly above 8%, and the prevalence of price reductions increased. That said, the recent, sharp reversal in mortgage rates in recent weeks, and the continued, unseasonal rise in inventory could improve transaction volumes in the months to come.

Buyer activity continued to slow as 30-yr mortgage rates rose above 7.5%, but competition levels for scarce inventory remained high.

MBS Highway’s September 2023 Housing Survey noted a significant drop in buyer activity levels and the pace of sales compared to August 2023. While this is to be expected due to normal seasonality, 7%+ mortgage rates and low inventory levels have clearly exerted a drag on transaction activity.

MBS Highway’s August 2023 Housing Survey saw nationwide buyer activity levels, upward pricing pressure, and the pace of sales all ease for the third-straight month. This reflects both normal seasonality and the influence of 7%+ mortgage rates and low inventory levels.

July 2023 marked the second month of slowing (but still elevated) levels of buyer activity. With average 30-year mortgage rates moving above 7% during the survey period, and inventory levels failing to grow during the spring selling season, this comes as no surprise. That said, demand remains robust.

MBS Highway’s June 2023 Housing Survey saw a slight pullback in buyer activity — albeit from elevated levels. Higher mortgage rates and low inventory levels are to blame.

MBS Highway’s May 2023 Housing Survey showed that home prices have passed an inflection point and are moving higher. This marks the 5th-straight month of improving activity levels and sentiment.

MBS Highway’s April 2023 Housing Survey showed another solid increase in buying activity as the spring selling/buying season kicked into high gear. This is the 4th-straight month of improving sentiment.

MBS Highway’s March 2023 Housing Survey showed resilient levels of buying activity and an improved pricing environment — despite a +100 bps rise in average 30-year mortgage rates during February 2023.

MBS Highway’s February 2023 Housing Survey showed a significant pick-up in buyer activity. Importantly, this marked the second consecutive month of improvement.

While buyer activity levels nationwide remained subdued (77% of respondents characterized activity levels as ‘Slow’ or ‘Very Slow’), our January 2023 survey showed the first (admittedly slight) improvement in buyer activity since July 2022.

Buyer activity rose from November to December, with 23% of respondents saying that their market is still “steady to very active” versus 19% last month. However, this figure is still well below the 41% reported just three months ago in September.

Buyer activity has slowed for the fifth straight month, with only 19% of respondents saying that their market is still “steady to very active.” Pricing pressure has also moderated; 4% of those surveyed are still seeing “moderate to significant” price increases versus 5% in October and 10% in September. On the flipside, 78% are seeing some degree of price reductions (as compared to 74% in October and 68% in September).

Buyer activity has fallen sharply in recent months, as 29% of respondents in October said that their market is still “steady to very active,” compared to 41% in September and 53% in August. Pricing pressure is also moderating, with 5% of those surveyed seeing “moderate to significant” price increases versus 10% in September and 16% in August.

Activity continued to slow this summer, as 41% of respondents in September said their market is still “steady to very active” versus 53% in August and 66% in July. In terms of pricing pressure, 10% of those surveyed are still seeing “moderate to significant” price increases versus 16% in August and 33% in July.

While there is certainly a slowdown in activity and pricing pressure from July to August, 53% of respondents said their market is still “steady to very active.” In terms of pricing pressure, 16% of those surveyed are still seeing “moderate to significant” price increases versus 33% in July.

The media continues to bash the housing market, with some suggesting that a bubble or crash may be ahead due to waning demand, higher mortgage rates and higher home prices. However, MBS Highway’s latest Housing Index Survey shows that the housing market remains strong and the media has it wrong, again.