Job growth was slower than expected in April. The national inventory of homes for sale continues to rise, but prices keep surprising to the upside.

The Case-Shiller (+0.4% MoM) and FHFA (+1.2% MoM) home price indices showed renewed home price appreciation in March, but the lack of recent progress on inflation kept the Fed on hold — again.

A very odd week, with solid new and pending home sales figures, but a “sneak peek” at Friday’s PCE that spooked the bond market even as the economy cooled.

Another rough week for buyers, as mortgage rates approached 7.5% in response to a blistering retail sales figure and Jerome Powell’s crisis of (inflation) confidence.

It was a rough week for would-be buyers, as two of the most important economic data points (BLS jobs report and CPI inflation) both came in hotter than expected.

Will stubbornly high mortgage rates hurt the spring selling season for the second-straight year? Not necessarily.

A quiet week for news saw mortgage rates drift lower, while existing home sales delivered a big beat relative to expectations. PCE will be out this morning, but the bond markets are closed until Monday.

The NAR’s proposed settlement will have far-reaching consequences while the Fed’s updated “dot plot” forecasts imply that rate cuts aren’t far away.

The Fed meets on March 20 and is expected to keep rates on hold. Data over the last week (CPI, PPI, retail sales) gave the Fed more reason to be cautious.

Mortgage rates have moved back below 7%, but the BLS job data for February (out 3/8) will determine if the positive momentum continues, or reverses.

So much is dependent on mortgage rates, and rates will follow inflation lower (eventually). With “core” PCE approaching the Fed’s 2% target, how close is ‘close enough’ for Powell & Friends to start cutting rates?

Hope is building for a more active spring/summer in terms of transaction volumes.